Across Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin, a lot of row-crop operations are taking the same approach to 2027 input planning: wait. The thinking is simple — hold off on committing to phosphate and other fertilizer purchases, and prices will likely soften by spring.
Quick answer: The data doesn't fully support a confident "prices will fall" bet. Farmer anxiety about 2027 fertilizer costs is already running well ahead of 2026, phosphate prices have climbed sharply over the past year, and the trade press is describing a market where waiting concentrates risk rather than reducing it. A recent policy move is being reported as relief, but most of the added supply it frees up is expected to bypass the U.S. farmer entirely.
What the data is actually showing
The National Corn Growers Association surveyed more than 600 farmers this spring, and the results point to a market that's more worried about next year than this one. For every farmer who reported rising concern about 2026 fertilizer prices and availability, nearly two reported greater concern heading into 2027. Part of that comes down to trade policy: continued countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphate imports, pushed by U.S. producers Mosaic and J.R. Simplot, have already halted a source of supply American retailers used to lean on.
The price trend backs up that anxiety. The American Farm Bureau Federation's own market intelligence team tracked Gulf-basis DAP climbing from roughly $583 per ton in January 2025 to nearly $800 per ton by August — a 36% run-up in under eight months. Rabobank's semiannual fertilizer outlook projects phosphate prices staying elevated into 2027, and estimates that Strait of Hormuz disruptions alone are pulling on the order of 0.8 million metric tons of fertilizer and precursor product off the market every month it stays constrained.
None of that means the picture is simple. CropLife's own trade coverage notes a real counter-argument: growers have already scaled back phosphate and potash purchases over the past two years, application rates have declined in drought-affected regions, and some retailers may be sitting on 2026 carryover that could soften 2027 demand. That's a legitimate reason some operations are holding off.
But that same CropLife analysis lands on the risk that actually matters most for planning purposes: if prices stay elevated through the fall, more growers get pushed into buying at the same time next spring — layering purchasing decisions into a shorter window right as planting approaches. That's a supply-chain bottleneck risk, not just a pricing one.
A preview of how this plays out
This dynamic isn't hypothetical — it's already happened this year in a different market. In Brazil, growers delayed phosphate purchases through mid-2025 on the same bet U.S. farmers are making now: that prices would fall if they waited. They didn't. Mosaic's Brazil country manager told S&P Global Platts in late June that the company does not expect a price correction — on the contrary, prices kept climbing, and the delayed decisions were pushing growers up against the calendar, risking product arriving too late for the planting window. StoneX's Josh Linville has described a similar standoff building in U.S. markets, with buyers unwilling to commit capital at current price levels even as supply-side pressure keeps building underneath them.
What about the recent duty suspension?
Worth addressing directly, since it's recent news farmers may already have seen: on June 29, 2026, the Trump administration signed a proclamation temporarily suspending countervailing duties on phosphate fertilizer imports from Morocco, declaring an emergency around fertilizer supply. USDA projects the move could reduce phosphate prices by roughly 22% and save farmers an estimated $1.82 billion annually industry-wide, as additional supply enters the market — welcome news, on paper, after a hard run of input costs. Stu Swanson, chair of the Iowa Corn Growers Association and a Wright County farmer, said he was glad to see the duties suspended, even while noting that fertilizer, chemical, and seed costs generally "increased during the last few years."
A few things temper how much this actually changes the picture for an individual operation. The suspension is temporary — up to eight months, or until the declared emergency ends, whichever comes first — not a permanent floor under prices. It addresses one driver (import duties) without touching the others we've covered here: Middle East supply disruption, tight global phosphate production, and the compressed spring buying window. And critically, the industry-wide savings figure isn't the same as relief at the farm level: much of the additional Moroccan supply freed up by the suspension is expected to move toward African and Asian buyers rather than the U.S. market, since logistics costs and buyer purchasing power favor those destinations. For a farmer in this region, that means the real, on-the-ground price impact is likely to be far more muted than the topline 22% figure suggests. The honest takeaway: this is a genuine policy shift, but it's not a reason to assume the wait-and-see math is safe — especially the timing risk, which this policy action doesn't resolve, and arguably doesn't meaningfully touch at all for most operations here.
What this means for Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin operations specifically
For operations in southeastern Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin, the practical version of this story isn't "prices will definitely rise" — it's that the range of outcomes where waiting pays off is narrower than it looks, and the range where it costs you a shorter application window and a worse price is wider. As of the most recent DTN weekly retail fertilizer survey (week of July 22, 2026), DAP is averaging about $911/ton — one of only two fertilizers tracked that actually ticked higher over the past month, even as five others, including anhydrous ammonia, fell. Anhydrous dropped 11% over that same stretch to $967/ton, its first dip under $1,000/ton in 17 weeks. In other words: the broader fertilizer market has been easing this summer, but phosphate specifically hasn't followed — which is exactly the disconnect worth watching if your plan depends on it doing so by next spring.
The bigger question this raises
The real decision in front of most operations isn't "will prices fall" — it's "what does my plan look like if they don't." That question touches more than phosphate purchase timing. It touches how you're managing ground you're already farming, what happens to acres that get walked away from this season, and how much flexibility you actually have if the market moves against the wait-and-see bet.
We'll be digging into all of that over the next few months — what this market shift means for your ground, your input plan, and your bottom line. If you want it in your inbox, subscribe to The Market Briefing by giving us your email at the bottom of this page.
FAQ
Will fertilizer prices go up or down in 2027? Phosphate prices have already risen sharply over the past year, and multiple industry outlooks project prices staying elevated into 2027. A June 2026 suspension of countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphate imports is projected to ease prices by roughly 22% industry-wide, but most of the additional supply it frees up is expected to go to African and Asian buyers rather than U.S. farmers, given logistics costs and buyer purchasing power — meaning the real relief for an individual operation here is likely to be much smaller than that topline number implies.
Why are farmers delaying fertilizer purchases for 2027? National Corn Growers Association surveys show farmer concern about 2027 fertilizer costs and availability running nearly double their concern about 2026, but many are still holding off purchases in hopes prices soften — the same bet Brazilian growers made in 2025 before prices continued climbing.
What should farmers do if fertilizer prices don't fall as expected? Operations should evaluate their input plan now rather than waiting for spring pricing to clarify, since delayed purchasing decisions concentrate demand into a narrower window and increase the risk of both higher prices and tighter supply availability.
Sources referenced: National Corn Growers Association (April 2026 survey release); American Farm Bureau Federation Market Intel; Rabobank Semiannual Fertilizer Outlook; CropLife ("For the Fertilizer Market, a Difficult Road Ahead"); S&P Global Platts (Mosaic Brazil interview); StoneX/Ag Marketing IQ; DTN weekly retail fertilizer survey (July 2026); USDA/White House fact sheet on the June 2026 phosphate duty suspension; The Freeman Journal (Stu Swanson, Iowa Corn Growers Association).