And in many cases, what's happening over there is already affecting input costs, commodity prices, and market access right here.
A Foreign Policy analysis lays it out plainly: the Strait of Hormuz closure is choking one-third of the world's seaborne fertilizer trade right as Northern Hemisphere farmers enter planting season. The FAO says there's a three-month window before risks escalate significantly. The World Food Program estimates 45 million additional people could face acute hunger by mid-2026.
And it's already showing up here. Urea at the New Orleans hub jumped 32% in one week — from $516 to $683 per metric ton. One ton of urea now costs the equivalent of 126 bushels of corn, up from 75 in December. USDA expects U.S. corn acreage to drop 3% as growers pivot away from nitrogen-intensive options.
This issue takes a wider view — not to say "it could be worse," but because every one of these global pressure points connects to your input costs and your grain prices. We're all farming in the same system.
Read the full analysis on Foreign Policy →Global supply shocks don't stay global for long. Understanding where the pressure points are helps you price inputs earlier and plan around supply chain vulnerability.
How much of your nutrient program depends on globally traded nitrogen? If you haven't locked in pricing, evaluate regional alternatives, including poultry litter, that operate on shorter, more stable supply chains. The farmers who planned ahead in 2022 came out better. Same will be true this time.